Partisan Fertility and Presidential Elections
CESifo, Munich, 2021
CESifo Working Paper No. 9488
![](https://cesifo.org/DocImg/cesifo1_wp9488.jpg?c=1689237161)
Changes in political leadership drive sharp changes in public policy and partisan beliefs about the future. We exploit the surprise 2016 election of Trump to identify the effects of a shift in political power on one of the most consequential household decisions: whether to have a child. Republican-leaning counties experience a sharp and persistent increase in fertility relative to Democratic counties, a shift amounting to 1.2 to 2.2% of the national fertility rate. In addition, Hispanics see fertility fall relative to non-Hispanics, especially compared to rural or evangelical whites.
Public Finance
Labour Markets