Working Paper

Stabilisation and Rebalancing with Fiscal or Monetary Devaluation: A Model-Based Comparison

Lukas Vogel
CESifo, Munich, 2015

CESifo Working Paper No. 5625

The paper uses a small open economy general-equilibrium model to compare fiscal and nom-inal exchange rate devaluation with respect to their impact on economic activity and the cur-rent account. In particular, it investigates to which extent fiscal devaluation mimics nominal exchange rate adjustment and mitigates the output loss associated with demand rebalancing and external adjustment. The results suggest that internal or external devaluation can support external adjustment and mitigate its impact on economic activity, without leading to lasting adjustment themselves. The quantitative contribution of a tax shift from labour to consump-tion as standard example of fiscal devaluation remains moderate, however.

CESifo Category
Monetary Policy and International Finance
Fiscal Policy, Macroeconomics and Growth
Keywords: devaluation, exchange rate, tax shift, recession, rebalancing
JEL Classification: E520, F410, F470