Working Paper

The Macroeconomic Loss Function: A Critical Note

Thomas Mayer
CESifo, Munich, 2002

CESifo Working Paper No. 771

The standard loss function counts both positive and negative deviations from the output and inflation targets as losses. But if the sample period is long enough, then output growth in excess of the target, and often also inflation rates that are below target, should be counted as gains instead of losses.

CESifo Category
Monetary Policy and International Finance
Keywords: loss functions, policy evaluation
JEL Classification: E370,E500,E610