Working Paper

Persistence in Youth Unemployment

Guglielmo Maria Caporale, Luis A. Gil-Alana
CESifo, Munich, 2012

CESifo Working Paper No. 3961

This paper examines the degree of persistence of youth unemployment (total, male and female) in twenty-four countries by using two alternative measures: the AR coefficient and the fractional differencing parameter, based on short- and long-memory processes respectively. The evidence suggests that persistence is particularly high in Japan and some EU countries such as Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Finland, where appropriate policy actions are of the essence. Specifically, active labour market policies are necessary to prevent short-term unemployment from becoming structural (long-term).

CESifo Category
Labour Markets
Empirical and Theoretical Methods
Keywords: youth unemployment, persistence, fractional integration
JEL Classification: C220, J640