Lindsey Macmillan

The Pandemic and Mismatched Students in the UK

One of Lindsey Macmillan’s current projects (with G. Wyness, J. Blanden, and M. Langella) builds on her recent publication “Matching in the Dark: Inequalities in Student to Degree Mismatch” (with S. Campbell, R. Murphy and G. Wyness). This paper highlighted that lower socioeconomic-status (SES) students are more likely to ‘undermatch’ – attend less selective university courses than expected given their A level (age 18 exams in England) grades – and less likely to overmatch (the reverse). This matters for social mobility since attending a higher-tariff course leads to higher future earnings (Belfield et al, 2018). In 2020, A levels were cancelled due to COVID-19, and students received Centre Assessed Grades (CAGs), predicted by teachers. Research (Murphy and Wyness, 2020; Anders et al., 2020), shows that high SES and private school students receive more generous predictions. They also have better information, advice and guidance, a key driver of attending higher-tariff courses. Simultaneously, universities were expanding places over fears of fewer overseas students attending, numbers caps were abandoned, and they were legally obliged to accept students they made offers to. This perfect storm could advantage high SES students, impacting the extent of mismatch, and the SES gap. In this project the researchers: 1) examine the changes in student-to-course mismatch over the period of exam cancellations, 2) examine the characteristics of mismatched students (by school type and SES) in 2020 versus 2019, and 3) provide new evidence on the consequences of mismatch for degree outcomes, describing the potential impact on equity and mobility.

Ms. Macmillan's research considers the role of early skills, education, and labour market experience in the transmission of incomes and work across generations. While visiting CESifo, Lindsey hopes to discuss potential collaborations between the CEPEO team and CESifo group. CEPEO brings together economists, quantitative social scientists, and psychologists, with a research agenda that spans from early years, schools, and tertiary education, into adulthood, focusing on inequalities in existing systems and advocating for policy reform to equalise opportunities.

Lindsey Macmillan is Professor of Economics and the Founding Director of the UCL Centre for Education Policy and Equalising Opportunities (CEPEO), London. She is also a Research Fellow in the Education and Skills sector at the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), and a Visiting Professor at Centre for Analysis of Social Exclusion (CASE) at London School of Economics. She gained her PhD in Economics from the University of Bristol, and was a Post-Doctoral Research Fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School. She has published in leading journals, including Journal of Labor Economics, Journal of Human Resources, and the Economic Journal.