Kaspar Wuthrich

An Exact and Robust Conformal Inference Method for Counterfactual and Synthetic Controls

This is the title of a paper authored by Kaspar Wuthrich, together with V. Chernozhukov and Y. Zhu. The researchers develop new inference methods for counterfactual and synthetic controls for evaluating policy effects. The proposed procedure works in conjunction with many modern and classical methods for estimating the counterfactual mean outcome in the absence of a policy intervention. Examples include difference-in-differences methods, synthetic controls, factor models, matrix completion models, interactive fixed effects models as well as times series models. The researchers apply their method to re-evaluate the effect of election day registration (EDR) laws on voter turnout in the United States.

Mr Wuthrich’s research interests are in theoretical and applied econometrics, policy evaluation as well as applied public and health economics. While visiting CESifo, he plans to work on developing new and theoretically justified inference methods for counterfactual and synthetic control methods.

Kaspar Wuthrich is Assistant Professor at the University of California, San Diego. He was previously a PhD Student (2012–2015) and Post-Doc and Lecturer (2016) at the University of Bern as well as Visiting PhD Student at MIT (2014–2015).