Andreas Pick

Phoenix Miracles Demystified

Andreas Pick, together with Michael Biggs and Thomas Mayer, has offered a solution to the puzzle that economic activity recovers after a financial crisis without a rebound in credit. These credit-less recoveries, known as "Phoenix Miracles", question the importance of credit. Mr Pick and his collaborators argue that these recoveries appear credit-less because GDP is compared to the stock of credit. In a theoretical model, they show that recoveries in GDP coincide with recoveries in the flow of credit and that this can occur even as the stock of credit declines.

Andreas Pick's research interests are in the areas of applied and theoretical econometrics. In a joint project with Hashem Pesaran and Allan Timmermann, he is working on forecasting with panel data, a topic that has received relatively little attention in the econometrics literature. With Robert Lehmann of CESifo he is working on developing forecasting techniques for regional data, and with Stefan Lautenbacher of CESifo and Agnieszka Markiewicz of Erasmus University, he is looking at the effect of uncertainty on the business cycle.

Andreas Pick is an associate professor at the Econometric Institute of Erasmus School of Economics and Director of Graduate Studies at Tinbergen Institute. In a part time position, he is also an economist in the research department of the Dutch Central Bank. He is a Fellow of Tinbergen Institute, the Erasmus Research Institute of Management, and a CESifo Research Network Fellow. Previously, he was a research fellow at the University of Cambridge and a research economist at the UK Debt Management Office. He holds a PhD from the University of Cambridge, a Masters degree from Humboldt University Berlin, and received his Abitur from Wilhelms Gymnasium, Munich.