Long Memory in US Real Output per Capita
CESifo, Munich, 2009
CESifo Working Paper No. 2671
![](https://cesifo.org/DocImg/cesifo1_wp2671.jpg?c=1689237171)
This paper analyses the long memory properties of quarterly real output per capita in the US (1948Q1 – 2008Q3) using non-parametric, semi-parametric and parametric techniques. The results vary substantially depending on the methodology employed. Evidence of mean reversion is obtained in a parametric context if the underlying disturbances are weakly autocorrelated. We also examine the possibility of a structural break in the data and the results indicate that there is a slight reduction in the degree of persistence after the break that is found to occur in the second quarter of 1978.
Fiscal Policy, Macroeconomics and Growth