All Green Ahead
It was a good ride. But a string of crises, from trade frictions through rising fuel prices to decarbonization pressures, have left the German automotive industry facing a dilemma: green up—or give up. A new CESifo Working Paper uses a novel approach to show how far the greening-uppers have come compared to the diehards.
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Other Highlighted Papers
Expatriate Managers
The CEOs of Google and Microsoft are Indian-born, Tesla’s is a South African/Canadian citizen (and now US), Nvidia’s was born in Taiwan. Expatriate CEOs appear to be good for business, at least in the US. Would that apply elsewhere? CESifo research tested the idea in Hungary. As it turns out, expatriate CEOs there massively outperform their local peers: the firms they lead show 13 percent total factor productivity growth, 95 percent sales growth, and increase both exports and domestic sales. Among the possible reasons: expat managers are chosen from a larger group, may possess a better understanding of international markets and exporting, and may adopt modern management styles, in addition to possessing skills that are specific to their MNEs.
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The Effects of Sanctions on Iran’s Middle Class
The sanctions imposed on Iran are intended to dissuade it from developing nuclear weapons. Iran’s government appears undeterred, but it is its middle class that is bearing the brunt of the sanctions’ impact, according to a CESifo analysis. Using a counterfactual scenario for how the middle class in Iran would have developed in the absence of these sanctions post-2012, the authors find that he annual middle-class size would have been approximately 11 percentage points larger, on average. Now, if that middle class could just convince its rulers to forsake the nukes…
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Geopolitical Fragmentation
That geopolitical fault lines are widening is no news. But what are the concrete effects? Which countries, or industries, stand to lose more? A CESifo working paper measured this phenomenon and found that, unsurprisingly, emerging economies suffer more than advanced ones. And, sadly, that fragmentation has an immediate negative effect, while the benefits of reduced fragmentation unfold only gradually.
Other CESifo Working Papers
Working Paper Submission Form
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Home Sweet Home, If Only
The German government promised 400,000 new dwellings per year. The reality is a far cry from that lofty goal. At the same time, apartments in areas outside the city limits remain empty due to planning regulations that prohibit inhabiting these apartments in the so-called Aussenbereich, i.e., the area beyond the outskirts of town, unless you are a farmer. What can be done to ease the by now quite acute housing shortage? Clemens Fuest has some ideas that would work in both urban areas as well as those surrounding them.
More about Clemens Fuest
 Clemens Fuest’s LinkedIn profile
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Must Try Harder
After laboriously climbing for a couple of months and holding altitude for the next two, the mood sank again in June. While company bosses are as satisfied with the current situation as in the previous month, their expectations for the coming six months took a bit of a dive. Trade expectations were affected particularly badly, while manufacturing and construction were just slightly less pessimistic. Only services brightened up.
Other Indicators:
Business Climate Index for East Germany Dips (June 2024)
Business Climate Index for Germany’s Self-Employed Brightens Up (June 2024)
German Export Expectations Drop (June 2024)
ifo Employment Barometer Stumbles Again (June 2024)
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How to Pull Off an Economic Turnaround in Germany
The German economic juggernaut is stuck in a rut. Growth has been anaemic for very long, beset by geopolitical risks, uncertainty about the outcome of the US presidential election, sluggish demand from China, skilled-labour shortages and defence-related budgetary pressures. Markus Brunnermeier of Princeton and Clemens Fuest will offer some pointers to climb out of the rut.
The debate will be held in German at the Chamber of Industry and Commerce for Munich and Upper Bavaria, Max-Joseph-Str. 2, Munich
22 July 2024, 18:00 - 19:30
Registration (in German)
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An AI-powered Series
The Munich Economic Debates will focus this year on one of the potentially most transformative technologies of our times: artificial intelligence. It suddenly seems to be everywhere and embedded in many things. Should we cheer? Or should we fret? The MEDs will try to shed light on concrete issues such as what risks the unrestricted availability of AI entails, or how we can take these risks into account without limiting AI’s potential, and whether policymakers should establish meaningful frameworks.
The fourth debate in the series will focus on the kind of research and innovation policy that we would need to put Germany firmly into the global AI map. It will be delivered by Tina Klüwer, of the Federal Ministry of Education and Research, on 7 October 2024.
It will be held between 18:00 and 19:30h (in German) at the Chamber of Industry and Commerce for Munich and Upper Bavaria, Max-Joseph-Str. 2, Munich, and livestreamed.
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Evaluating Cohesion Policies
It is a worthy goal: to enhance economic, social and territorial cohesion among all EU member states and regions. Even better, the set of policies to achieve such cohesion must undergo regular assessments, a key requirement, given the amount of resources devoted to furthering cohesion. Are the assessments well designed? Are they effective and uniform in their application? A new EconPol Policy Report applies principles of sound evaluation to assess the CP evaluation system itself. There is room for improvement, it finds.
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Climate Change and the EU’s Development Policy
Poorer countries are being more heavily affected by global warming than better-heeled ones, in particular because their all-important agricultural sectors are taking the brunt of the harsher impacts of climate change. To help them more effectively, the EU’s development policies should support innovative financial mechanisms for family farms and foster the opening of product markets and the free movement of people, according to the latest EconPol Policy Brief.
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Guests
Each month, CESifo and CES host guest researchers from different parts of the world.
Molly Schnell, Northwestern University, is visiting CES 1 June - 31 July 2024
Hannes Schwandt, Northwestern University, is visiting CES 1 June - 31 July 2024
Lukas Althoff, Stanford University , is visiting CES 3 June - 3 Aug 2024
Ananish Chaudhuri, University of Auckland, is visiting CES 17 June - 2 Aug 2024
Gregory Veramendi, University of London, is visiting CES 1 - 21 July 2024
Glenn Magerman, Solvay Brussels School of Economics and Management, is visiting CES 1 – 21 July 2024
Costas Arkolakis, Yale University, is visiting CES 1 - 22 July 2024
Sun Kyoung Lee, University of Michigan, is visiting CES 1 - 22 July 2024
Björn Thor Arnarson, University of Copenhagen, is visiting CES 7 – 13 July 2024
David Neumark, University of California, Irvine, is visiting CESifo 11 – 18 July 2024
Gordon B. Dahl, University of California, San Diego, is visiting CESifo 11 – 20 July 2024
Moamen Gouda, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies (HUFS), is visiting CESifo 15 – 27 July 2024
Davide Suverato, ETH Zurich, is visiting CESifo 22 – 26 July 2024
Carlo Rasmus Schwarz, Bocconi University, is visiting CES 22 July – 4 August 2024
Ulrich Glogowsky, University of Lienz, is visiting CES 10 August – 15 September 2024
Abigail Payne, University of Melbourne, is visiting CES 11 August – 30 November 2024
Ana Gamarra Rondinel, University of Melbourne, is visiting CESifo 25 Aug – 21 September 2024
Stephan Heblich, University of Toronto, is visiting CES and CESifo 1 September – 31 December 2024
Roberto Iacono, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, is visiting CESifo 2 – 7 September 2024
Eric A. Hanushek, Stanford University – Hoover Institution, is visiting CESifo 8 – 15 September 2024
Erik Plug, University of Amsterdam, is visiting CESifo 16 – 22 September 2024
More Information
How to Become a Guest
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SEThe Bulletin Board is where CESifo network members can post news and messages that are of interest to the research community and to all CESifo Newsletter readers. If you have anything you would like to share, please feel free to contact us at services@cesifo.de.
BULLETIN BOARD
CONFERENCES AND WORKSHOPS
1st CEPR Frankfurt Hub Conference “Euro at 25”
Frankfurt am Main, 30 – 31 October 2024
Keynote speaker: Isabelle Schnabel
The Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE and the CEPR Research and Policy Networks on European Financial Architecture, European Economic Policy, and FinTech and Digital Currencies invite submissions on theoretical and empirical papers on EMU, the Euro, and its future. Topics of interest include (but are not limited to):
1. Digital euro and Central Bank Digital Currencies
2. Economic and Monetary Union, Banking Union, and Capital Market Union
3. Green Euro: European Sustainability Regulation and Green Monetary Policy
4. The geopolitical perspective of the Euro
5. Monetary and financial stability: The Euro’s track record.
Submissions to events@safe-frankfurt.de
Deadline: 1 September 2024
Second Workshop on Women in Central Banking
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Nov. 1, 2024
This workshop provides a platform for female PhD students working on topics relevant for central banks to present and receive feedback on their work. The workshop will foster interaction between presenters, conference attendees and senior economists working in central banks, providing ample opportunity for discussions and networking.
We encourage female PhD students at all stages of their PhD studies to submit their work. Submissions in all areas of economics and finance, but especially macroeconomics, monetary economics, labour economics, international economics, international finance, financial intermediation, econometrics, energy economics, big data, and other topics of general interest to central banks are welcome. Selected papers will be assigned a discussant. The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas will cover travel and accommodation costs of presenters and discussants, subject to Federal Reserve travel guidelines.
Opening remarks will be delivered by Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan. The workshop will include a keynote speech by the Executive Vice President and Director of Research at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Anna Paulson.
Submissions to dal.fed.research@dal.frb.org with subject line “Second Women in Central Banking Workshop Submission”.
Deadline: 15 August 2024
XIII INTERNATIONAL ACADEMIC SYMPOSIUM
Strategies for 2050: energy and industry perspectives
Barcelona, 4 February 2025
A growing number of countries are announcing firm commitments to achieve net-zero emissions in the coming decades. However, it is imperative to take an additional step to understand how economies evolve and adapt to these new scenarios. In this context, it is essential to examine the pathways to transition to a net-zero energy system by 2050, ensuring a stable and affordable energy supply, providing universal access to energy, and fostering sustainable economic growth. Keeping the spirit of previous years, the Symposium will offer a platform for debate and discussion on how the different actors within the innovation ecosystem can contribute to achieving the climate targets. Authors are invited to submit empirical papers emphasizing the energy policy implications relevant to oil, gas, or electricity sector.
Keynote speakers: Valentina Bosetti (Bocconi University)
Tooraj Jamasb (Copenhagen School of Energy Infrastructure)
Submissions: Per email to ieb.simposium@ub.edu in PDF format.
Deadline: 13 October 2024
Further info: Barcelona Symposium
8th International Conference on
The Political Economy of Democracy and Dictatorship
The Political Economy of Democracy and Dictatorship
University of Münster, 20-22 February 2025
The conference addresses the origin and prospects of democracy and dictatorship, policy control and governance structures in comparative political systems and transition processes from dictatorship to democracy and vice versa.
Theoretical as well as empirical papers are welcome by both economists and other social scientists. In particular, papers may cover topics such as:
• Political accountability in autocracies and democracies
• Violence, conflicts and revolutions
• Political stability and transitions
• Institutional change and prosperity
• Constitutional history of democracy
• Culture, religion and political institutions
Keynote Speakers: Raphaël Franck, Hebrew University of Jerusalem
Nancy Qian, Northwestern University, Kellogg School
Submissions: http://www.pedd.org
Deadline: 15 September 2024
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