Plugging the Leaks
Sanctions have famously failed to cripple Russia’s economy. Countries that neither impose American and European sanctions, nor are under sanctions themselves, are reluctant to take sides in the global superpower rivalry. While they show little interest in challenging US leadership, they carefully calibrate the extent to which they comply with or evade Western-imposed sanctions against Russia and Belarus, undermining their effectiveness. New CESifo research shows how firms in neutral developing countries adjust their supply chains in response to geopolitical and economic fragmentation, and explores the channels through which they comply with or bypass sanctions. Intriguingly, the researchers suggest that to strengthen the effectiveness of sanctions, sanctioning countries should make use of their multinational-enterprise networks.
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Other Highlighted Papers
Honesty in Virtual Communication
Virtual communication makes it easy for people to be brutally honest—but also to lie shamelessly, far beyond what they would dare to do in in-person interactions. Post-pandemic remote work arrangements have made this kind of communication ubiquitous. This raises the question of whether different communication channels—text or video—are used when being dishonest. A CESifo paper that delves into the issue found that the experiment’s subjects chose the text communication channel significantly more often when being dishonest than when being honest. Can anything be done to prevent dishonest behaviour?
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The Cost of Maritime Shipping Disruption
Before the Houthis started lobbing bombs at ships on the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, it was pirates off the coast of Somalia, the Malacca Strait or the Gulf of Guinea. Shipping companies have had to alter their routes, increasing costs and pollution. What is the true cost of such disruption? A CESifo study dealing with piracy-caused disturbance gives an indication of the magnitude of the additional cost and environmental impact of the resulting avoidance behaviour, based on an analysis of 25 million shipping voyages during the height of pirate attacks. Their analysis sheds an alarming light on the potential cost of the current Houthi-caused disruption.
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Circular Economy
The idea is hard to beat in terms of appeal: reduce virgin material extraction, energy consumption and waste by reusing what has already been produced. The economic benefits can be substantial. And yet the discussion on circular economy so far has mostly involved engineers, architects and social scientists… but no economists. This CESifo paper aims to correct that, discussing the circular economy in economists’ language.
Other CESifo Working Papers
Working Paper Submission Form
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Escaping the Middle-Technology Trap
The EU is losing the global innovation race. True, German automotive engineering is still top dog, the Netherlands’ ASML is the world’s undisputed leader in chipmaking equipment, Denmark’s Novo Nordisk has taken the world by storm with its weight-loss Wegovy, EU medical equipment still rocks, and fundamental research such as that conduced at CERN has no parallels anywhere. And yet, EU industry invests less than its peers in R&D, it lags far behind in software and artificial intelligence, and it is losing the EV race. Welcome to the middle-technology trap. Clemens Fuest, together with Daniel Gros, Jean Tirole, Philipp-Leo Mengel and Giorgio Presidente, propose an innovation governance system modelled after the US Advanced Research Projects Agency (ARPA) to support high-risk, high-return projects that are far from commercial application as a way to escape the trap.
More about Clemens Fuest
 Clemens Fuest’s LinkedIn profile
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A Chat with Hans-Werner Sinn
As CESifo and ifo celebrate their 25th and 75th jubilees respectively, Hans-Werner Sinn, the architect of both the ifo revival and the creation of the CESifo International Research Network, reminisces about the initial years and the time in between. A very personal account of how CES came about, how the CESifo Working Paper series took form, how his research evolved and how Munich gained a prominent place on the global economics research stage. It is all there, in his own words.
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Still On The Up
So far so good this year. The Ifo Business Climate Index rose in April for the third time in a row. German company bosses keep getting more optimistic and their assessment of the current situation perked up a bit. The steadying of Germany’s economy seems to owe some oomph to the service sector. Manufacturing, by contrast, shows a mixed picture: expectations were less pessimistic, but the current situation worsened. Trade and construction seem to be coming off their trough as well.
Other Indicators:
Business Climate Index for East Germany Rises Again (April 2024)
Business Climate Index for Germany’s Self-Employed Dampened (April 2024)
German Export Expectations Drop (April 2024)
ifo Employment Barometer Falls (April 2024)
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An AI-powered Series
The Munich Economic Debates will focus this year on one of the potentially most transformative technologies of our times: artificial intelligence. It suddenly seems to be everywhere and embedded in many things. Should we cheer? Or should we fret? The MEDs will try to shed light on concrete issues such as what risks the unrestricted availability of AI entails, or how we can take these risks into account without limiting AI’s potential, and whether policymakers should establish meaningful frameworks.
The fourth debate in the series will focus on the kind of research and innovation policy that we would need to put Germany firmly into the global AI map. It will be delivered by Tina Klüver, of the Federal Ministry of Education and Research, on 7 October 2024.
It will be held between 18:00 and 19:30h (in German) at the Chamber of Industry and Commerce for Munich and Upper Bavaria, Max-Joseph-Str. 2, Munich, and livestreamed at www.ifo.de/live
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The Future of EU Energy Policy
We survived the first winter after Russian energy supplies were cut drastically in the wake of the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine, and then we survived the next winter too, without the EU economy collapsing as once feared. But the never-ending war and the pressures of decarbonising the bloc’s economies call for taking stock: which policies worked, which ones did not and, most crucially, where the EU energy policy should go next to safeguard the EU’s competitiveness. A new, in-depth EconPol Report by a team of international experts does just that, delineating the road ahead.
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The Rise of Populism
Seems we never learn. Populism seldom ends well. Brexit has given way to Bregret, Trump ended his presidency with rock-bottom approval rates, Argentina’s economy is in the doldrums after decades of populism. And yet here we are. Everywhere we look, from Slovakia to Italy, Hungary to the Netherlands, Germany to France and Sweden, populists are garnering enough votes to threaten the established order, or even to win power outright. Trump might even get re-elected, God forbid. With looming elections in the EU and the US, not to mention India, Mexico, South Africa and other places, the EconPol Forum journal asked a number of international experts to share their thoughts on the causes, consequences and policy implications of populism.
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Guests
Each month, CESifo and CES host guest researchers from different parts of the world.
Andreas Steinmayr, University of Innsbruck, is visiting CES 15 Apr – 31 May 2024
Mike Zabek, Federal Reserve Board, is visiting CES 15 Apr – 14 Jun 2024
Amil Petrin, University of Minnesota, is visiting CES 13 - 27 May 2024
Andrea Lassmann, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz, is visiting CES 16 May - 5 Jul 2024
Lucija Muehlenbachs, University of Calgary, is visiting CESifo 20 – 24 May 2024
Stefan Staubli, University of Calgary, is visiting CESifo 20 – 24 May 2024
Emma Harrington, University of Virginia, is visiting CESifo 27 May – 1 June 2024
Vitezslav Titl, Utrecht University, is visiting CESifo 27 May – 8 June 2024
Molly Schnell, Northwestern University, is visiting CES 1 June – 31 July 2024
Hannes Schwandt, Northwestern University, is visiting CES 1 June – 31 July 2024
Luca Macedoni, Aarhus University, is visiting CES 2 - 16 June 2024
Andrew B. Bernard, Tuck School of Business, is visiting CES 3 - 7 June 2024
Elsa Leromain, University of Antwerp, is visiting CESifo 3 – 8 June 2024
Pol Antras, Harvard University, is visiting CES 3 – 9 June 2024
Lukas Althoff, Stanford University , is visiting CES 3 June – 3 Aug 2024
Abdoulaye Ndiaye, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, is visiting CES 10 – 21 June 2024
Ashley Craig, Australian National University (ANU) , is visiting CES 11 – 22 June 2024
Jakob Roland Munch, University of Copenhagen, is visiting CES 12 – 26 June 2024
Tristan Gagnon-Bartsch, Florida State University, is visiting CES 15 – 29 June 2024
Max Löffler, Maastricht University, is visiting CES 17 – 27 June 2024
Manuel Linsenmeier, Columbia University, is visiting CESifo 17 – 28 June 2024
José María Barrero, Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México (ITAM), is visiting CESifo 17 – 29 June 2024
Ananish Chaudhuri, University of Auckland, is visiting CES 17 June – 2 Aug 2024
Holger Breinlich, University of Surrey, is visiting CES 22 – 29 June 2024
Ruben Durante, National University of Singapore, is visiting CESifo 1 – 10 July 2024
Björn Thor Arnarson, University of Copenhagen, is visiting CES 1 – 17 July 2024
Glenn Magerman, Solvay Brussels School of Economics and Management, is visiting CES 1 – 21 July 2024
Gregory Veramendi, University of London, is visiting CES 1 – 21 July 2024
Costas Arkolakis, Yale University, is visiting CES 1 – 22 July 2024
Sun Kyoung Lee, University of Michigan, is visiting CES 1 – 22 July 2024
Tommy Krieger, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, is visiting CESifo 8 – 12 July 2024
David Neumark, University of California, Irvine, is visiting CESifo 11 – 18 July 2024
Gordon B. Dahl, University of California, San Diego, is visiting CESifo 11 – 20 July 2024
Moamen Gouda, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies (HUFS), is visiting CESifo 15 – 27 July 2024
More Information
How to Become a Guest
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The Bulletin Board is where CESifo network members can post news and messages that are of interest to the research community and to all CESifo Newsletter readers. If you have anything you would like to share, please feel free to contact us at services@cesifo.de.
BULLETIN BOARD
CALLS FOR APPLICATIONS
The Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE and the Graduate School of Economics, Finance, and Management (GSEFM) at Goethe University Frankfurt invite excellent students to apply to their
PhD programs in Finance and Economics (full-time)
starting in October 2024
Third deadline for applications: 31 May 2024
The GSEFM graduate program offers a quantitative and research-oriented education featuring the structure of premier Anglo-Saxon graduate programs. Together with the Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE, it provides an environment where students can benefit from a unique research group in Finance spanning a wide range of topics, such as banking regulation, systemic risk, asset pricing, corporate, household, behavioral, sustainable and macro finance, data science, and financial law. Students and faculty benefit from the location in Frankfurt, the primary center for financial markets and central banking in continental Europe.
The Ph.D. programs consist of two years of doctoral coursework with a qualifying examination at the end of the first year. Core courses in the first year and two to three elective courses in the second year ensure that students acquire a thorough knowledge of the theory of Economics and Finance before beginning their own research.
SAFE offers funding for the entire program to three excellent applicants for the Ph.D. Program in Finance as well as to those for the Program in Economics who pursue Finance as one field in their studies. The funding includes a scholarship of monthly €1,300 in the first year and an ensuing work contract as research assistant, conditional on passing the preliminary exams.
More information
CONFERENCES AND WORKSHOPS
Second Workshop on Women in Central Banking
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Nov. 1, 2024
This workshop provides a platform for female PhD students working on topics relevant for central banks to present and receive feedback on their work. The workshop will foster interaction between presenters, conference attendees and senior economists working in central banks, providing ample opportunity for discussions and networking.
We encourage female PhD students at all stages of their PhD studies to submit their work. Submissions in all areas of economics and finance, but especially macroeconomics, monetary economics, labour economics, international economics, international finance, financial intermediation, econometrics, energy economics, big data, and other topics of general interest to central banks are welcome. Selected papers will be assigned a discussant. The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas will cover travel and accommodation costs of presenters and discussants, subject to Federal Reserve travel guidelines.
Opening remarks will be delivered by Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan. The workshop will include a keynote speech by the Executive Vice President and Director of Research at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Anna Paulson.
Submissions with subject line “Second Women in Central Banking Workshop Submission”.
Deadline: 15 August 2024
ASSET 2024
Venice, October 31st, November 1st–2nd 2024
the 2024 Annual Meeting of the Association of Southern European Economic Theorists (ASSET) will be held at the Department of Economics - Ca’ Foscari University of Venice, in San Giobbe Economics Campus. The conference is open to researchers not only from ASSET members and other institutions located in Southern Europe and the Mediterranean region, but also from institutions outside this area.
Keynote speeches: Hélène Rey, London Business School, and Alessandro Pavan, Northwestern University.
Submissions
Deadline: 15 June 2024
Syracuse-Chicago Webinar Series on Property Tax Administration and Design
Syracuse University and the University of Chicago organize a webinar series that "aims to gather insight and scholarship through domestic and international comparative studies with common threads to help reform and improve property tax administration and design in the U.S. and other countries facing similar problems."
Interested scholars will find the schedule, a registration link and further information here.
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